China in Myanmar

This study investigates the conditions under which China intervenes in Myanmar’s long-running civil war, focusing on the motivations and timing of support for either the Myanmar government or rebel groups. Despite increasing recognition of China’s role as a regional hegemon with deep economic and security interests in Myanmar, existing literature lacks a systematic, data-driven analysis of its interventions. To address this gap, the study develops an original dataset of Chinese interventions from 2010 to 2024, including diplomatic, economic, and political activities not captured in existing sources. The analysis examines whether conflict intensity near the Chinese border, fatalities near key infrastructure like the China-Myanmar pipeline, and overall war fatalities influence China’s decision to intervene—and the form such intervention takes. The findings aim to clarify the strategic logic of third-party involvement in civil wars and contribute to broader debates on foreign intervention, regional security, and the economic dimensions of international conflict.